European natural gas prices have surged in November, with the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark climbing 16% to €46 per megawatt-hour (MWh). This marks a sharp rebound from February’s three-year low of €25/MWh, reflecting mounting challenges in the region’s energy markets.
Unseasonably cold weather across Europe has spiked heating demand, while reduced wind energy output has forced utilities to rely more heavily on gas-fired power plants. These factors have pushed gas storage levels below the five-year average for the first time this year, intensifying market concerns.
Geopolitical uncertainties have further exacerbated the situation. Gazprom’s suspension of supplies to Austria and the uncertain future of the Russia-Ukraine pipeline transit agreement threaten stability during the critical winter months. Although Russian pipeline gas now meets only a fraction of Europe’s overall demand, any disruptions could stretch infrastructure capacity to the limit.
Goldman Sachs has raised its 2025 price forecast for TTF to €40/MWh and warned that under extreme scenarios—including LNG delays or increased competition from Asian markets—prices could soar to €77/MWh. Such levels may force Europe to explore oil-based alternatives.
The rising costs risk slowing Europe’s economic recovery by increasing energy bills and straining industries reliant on affordable energy. Policymakers may face mounting pressure to implement energy subsidies or accelerate the transition to renewables. Despite this, current prices remain well below the unprecedented peaks of summer 2022, when the energy crisis pushed TTF to nearly €350/MWh.